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The media in 2027
 | Predicting the future is a mug's game. We're still not driving around in floating cars or living on Mars. The pace of change in the media is now so fast it's hard enough to keep up with today's technology, let alone know what tomorrow will look like. "But either we take hold of the future or the future takes hold of us," said futurologist Patrick Dixon. The YouTube generation It is already a reality that some blogs have higher circulations than newspapers, and that YouTube can attract more viewers than ITV1. No one watches TV commercials any more and global brands commission agencies to make web ads that look viral so consumers will trust them. We are more likely to believe the user reviews on Tripadvisor than the official hotel website. Anyone can write a blog, and even Tony Blair has a Facebook profile - though, tellingly, not Gordon Brown. And the average age of people with a Second Life avatar is 45. Meanwhile, St Pixel's is planning to bring church to your mobile phone. More soberingly, all this also means missionaries' newsletters can be read by a potentially hostile crowd around the world - and archive versions will still show up in 20 years. Telling stories But whatever we digest our media through in the future, the fundamentals will never change. Journalists and Christians will still be telling stories. "The future media will reflect the appetites of people to read, listen and watch just as they do today," said Dr Dixon. "And because human nature shows no sign of changing I suspect the balance of content will be exactly the same. "A lot will be sensational or contain very personal stories and a lot will be emotional reaction to events rather than the events themselves. The Sun sells newspapers by following stories people are interested in. They are identical to the stories that will spread virally in the future. It's populism and all media is based on that premise." A more pressing issue for Dr Dixon is editors dealing fairly with all sections of the community. "The key to all this is consistency," he said. "It's vital that the religious convictions of different minority groups are respected rather than one being singled out for particularly negative treatment. "I am seeing an increasing militancy in some parts of the Church partly, perhaps, as a reponse to seeing the success the Islamic community has had in discouraging mockery of their faith through well-organised protest." Narrowing of minds He reads the Guardian and Telegraph every day to compare their coverage of the same stories. But Mark Browning, programme director of Heart, fears few people will do that in the future. "It's quite a cultural challenge that people don't want to get challenged out of their mindset," he said. They will rely on RSS feeds and email summaries provided by outlets that share their prejudices and so may never be exposed to alternative views. Andy Duncan, chief executive of Channel 4, believes journalists must fight this narrowing of minds. "I do worry that over time some of that mass experience of sharing of ideas and information may get dissipated and we'll end up a much more fragmented society, which is something to be protected against really quite carefully," he said. "Ultimately this is about an opportunity and a threat. Whether you like it or not the world is changing pretty rapidly. That's not going away - it's going to accelerate. If you are not seriously thinking about it you should probably be a bit worried. Over the next five to 10 years it will be harder not easier to get religious programmes on air, for example. "There are some threats and problems and issues we all have to deal with but my goodness there are some real opportunities too. Most organisations have more ways of communicating with people and more ways of hearing back from people than ever before. For the first time consumers get it and know how to work this stuff and are keen to interact. That's a fantastic opportunity." Elizabeth Hopkirk www.globalchange.com www.stpixels.com www.channel4.com www.heart1062.co.uk www.facebook.com |
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, Jun 12 2007, 6:51 PM EDT
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Future of Media
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Patrick Dixon
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